miércoles, 25 de agosto de 2021

Hablemos de Elecciones Peruanas y Cifras (Bonus)

Peruvian Elections have been tagged as the elections that divided our country. The BBC presented it in a map, with regions captures by one or the other party. However, preferences evolved over time and will evolve again depending on each region's news, promises, and actions.


Let us remember that the election was defined by a difference of 44 263 votes only (between the two parties) and let us add some facts that makes this difference quite interesting if we check only the second round and some unusual but feasible facts:

  1. There are 36 (0.4%) polling stations fully voided, it means the full list of voters voided for each polling station: 10 574 spoilt votes. There is no record to see if there was a vote intention or how that vote distribution was (or could have been).
  2. There are 193 (2%) polling stations fully voided after the election, it means 33 822 spoilt votes, where the assistance to the polling station was below the polling station list.
  3. There are 21 (0.2%) polling stations where there was not a single absence: 4505 votes.
  4. There are 347 (4%) polling stations (39 791 votes) with not a single spoilt vote on any of them (vs 8641 polling stations with at least one spoilt vote). 160 polling stations located abroad and 187 in Peru (only 10 in Lima).
  5. There are 21 polling stations with 100% valid votes for a single candidate (any of the two): 2171 votes.

Back to the map, we will present the composition of each region, the number of poll stations and the number of expected voters for each one. As Peruvians can vote abroad, we can also consider some continents as regions, as they can have more voters than certain Peruvian locations.

Country

Region

Poll Stations

Total Voters

PERU

LIMA

27942

8322644

PERU

LA LIBERTAD

4852

1429469

PERU

PIURA

4811

1396448

PERU

AREQUIPA

3950

1145268

PERU

CAJAMARCA

3828

1103247

PERU

CUSCO

3526

1025280

PERU

JUNIN

3425

982556

PERU

LAMBAYEQUE

3333

977656

PERU

PUNO

3163

922016

PERU

ANCASH

3102

886265

PERU

CALLAO

2754

824496

PERU

LORETO

2392

699964

EXTRANJERO

AMERICA

2253

661763

PERU

ICA

2223

651364

PERU

SAN MARTIN

2188

636330

PERU

HUANUCO

2051

586411

PERU

AYACUCHO

1704

473282

PERU

UCAYALI

1317

389889

PERU

APURIMAC

1125

316000

PERU

AMAZONAS

1105

306186

PERU

HUANCAVELICA

1094

299843

EXTRANJERO

EUROPA

1012

291798

PERU

TACNA

974

282974

PERU

PASCO

695

200682

PERU

TUMBES

574

167771

PERU

MOQUEGUA

524

148367

PERU

MADRE DE DIOS

396

116513

EXTRANJERO

ASIA

146

36910

EXTRANJERO

OCEANIA

24

6222

EXTRANJERO

AFRICA

5

340

Now let's observe the first regions separately, with the evolution of votes in their different elections and parties and then the final result for the last election. We will observe a comparison regarding the voters' turnout and the received votes for each party in three different elections: Congress election (2020-EC1), First round presidential election (2021-EG1), Second round presidential election (2022-EG2). 

The main observation for all the results (Peru and abroad) is the evolution of the "spoilt vote", for the three last elections, we observe the peaks of "spoilt vote" for the first two elections and "Fuerza Popular" for the third one:


Now it's the turn of the biggest region Lima (1) with 27942 polling stations, the capital, with similar results and with a larger margin between FP and PL parties for the second-round election:




La Libertad (2), similar to previous charts (4852 polling stations):



(3) Piura with 4811 polling stations (the grey line is now spoilt vote):




(4)  Arequipa (3950 polling stations) is the first big game-changer: the observed peaks are for Union por el Peru (for 2020 EC), Peru Libre for first and second round 2021 elections.




(5) Cajamarca (3828 p.s.) presents a different shape on the distributions. Spoil Vote on top in 2020, then Peru Libre on top for both 2021 elections. A special distribution shape is visible for Fuerza Popular in 2021-second-round (blue line).




(6) Cuzco (3526 p.s.) also similar to Cajamarca with wider distance from one candidate to another:




(7) Junin (3425 p.s.) is similar too but the difference is not as large as in the previous one:




(8) Lambayeque (3333 p.s.) with spoilt vote on top for 2020-EC1 and 2021-First Round (EG1) and then Fuerza Popular for 2021 Second Round (EG2):



(9) Puno (3163 p.s.), almost captured by "Peru Libre" for the 2021 second round (EG2):


(10) Ancash (3102 p.s.), from Spoilt Vote for 2020 and 2021 first round, to Peru Libre in 2021 second round:




(11) Callao (2754 p.s.), with Fuerza Popular on top in the 2021 second round, before the spoilt vote:




(12) Loreto (in the jungle with 2392 polling stations) the same:




And just one case from abroad: (13) America (North, Central and South America: 25 countries with 2253 polling stations) with Spoilt Vote on top for 2020, then Renovación Popular / Spoilt Vote for 2021 (First Election) and finally Fuerza Popular for the second round:



As we can see, a Peru divided is relative, as there was competition in various regions, except for Cuzco and Puno. The bigger change was the evolution of the vote, reducing the spoilt vote to a minimum in the final election (2021 second round: EG2).

Other regions over 2000 polling stations each:



Regions over 1000 polling stations each:







And finally, the remaining regions with less than 1000 polling stations each:








On a final note, let's go back to the map, if we observe the same map considering the number of voters for each region, we will see something different.



4 comentarios:

Anónimo dijo...

es increible la magia de los numeros claramente se ve que esta fue la elecion sui eneris , que vivimmos esos dias de suguenda vuelta donde amigos y familiares se distanciaron por charls politicas muchos de los cuales aun hoy siguen distanciado , , tambien alejandonos del contexto cientifico podriamos pensar en la mano manipuladora del fujimorismos practicando las trampas de su fundador alberto fujimori , y no seria estraño pensarlo pues como vimos en la primera vuelta hubo denuncias directas de fraudes electorales en cuando valietemente los ciudadanos denunciaron las cedulas lenadas o trapas similares a suerte no logro su objetivoy el pueblo peruano hizo oir su voz diciendo queremos un presidente humilde del pueblo que conesfuerzo titulado enseña en un alejado pueblito casi olvidado hoy tenemos un presidente que sabe loque es pasr hambre y matar un pollo de tu propio corral , talvez dios quiso que ni con trampa nos quiten la oportunidad que hoy tenemos

Anónimo dijo...

¿El comentario explica de alguna manera los números o es solo cháchara inútil?

julius dijo...

solo explesaba mi admiracion por dichos numeros y tambien por la calidad matematica de mi amigo y aun asi es in creible que un cientifico de tu nivel tenga tan poca creatividad pero coo dios da barbas alqeu notieje quijada no uso creatividd sino solo casos recurentes y el caso mas recurente se ve en los latrocidios fujimoristas que llenan emerotecas y mira que coincidencia la segunda vuelta participo la hija del fundador del fujimorismo que cosas no ? talvez tu no lo notas pero tu investigacion pone de manifiesto que la corrupcion de los fujimoristas rompen esquemas
si lo que puede pasar pasara y por lo que los adultos desde 1990vimos y vivimos la corrupcion de la dictadura fujimorista es demostrado qeu por parte del fujimorismo es posible entonses podemos pensar qeu es posible esas alteraciones que se ven en las graficas es edcir si puede pasar

Anónimo dijo...

Gracias por tu comentario pero repito exactamente la misma pregunta:
¿El comentario previo explica de alguna manera los números o es solo cháchara inútil?
¿Añade o quita algo a lo encontrado?
Quizá suene rudo, pero no encuentro como aporta a la discusión.
Si puedes sustentarlo con hechos y cifras, encantado de seguir el diálogo, caso contrario te agradecería me comentes sobre algo de lo presentado.
Gracias